by The New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals will wrap up Week 14 in the NFL when these two clubs face off on the “Monday Night Football” stage at State Farm Stadium.
For New England, this matchup has serious playoff implications as a win would allow them to beat both the New York Jets and the Los Angeles Chargers to 7th place in the AFC. Meanwhile, the 4-8 Cardinals desperately need a win in the NFC to have any outside chances to enter the postseason.
Here we will look specifically at the different betting angles that this game offers. Alongside the scatter and total, we’ll also take a look at the various player gear and hand over our picks on how we see this showdown going.
All NFL odds on Caesars Sportsbook.
how to watch
History: Monday, December 12 | Time: 20:15 ET
Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale)
TV: ESPN | Transfer: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Rates: Patriots -1.5, O/U 43.5
line movement
Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots
Opening at Patriots -1.5, there was little or no action on this line. There was a momentary drop in the midweek Patriots -1, but that soon spiked back to the halfway point and has been like that ever since.
vote: +1.5. The Cardinals have not been a good team at home, losing 10 of their last 11 games at State Farm Stadium. However, this seems like a good match for them here against New England. The Patriots have battled mobile quarterbacks this season, losing a total of 30 points to teams like Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Kyler Murray can have a similar effect in this game, either on engineered runs or by just prolonging pass plays with his legs. With the Cardinals bye-bye, DeAndre Hopkins and his two top receivers at Hollywood Brown will likely be as healthy as they’ve been all season, which could pose a problem against New England’s secondary team. Of course, the Patriots’ offensive play calls leave little to be desired and could put them behind eight balls in this game as well.
key trend: The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games.
Under/Over total
Contrary to the spread, the total saw slightly more action after initially opening at 43.5. It then jumped to 45, which held it until Tuesday afternoon before starting to drop to 44.5. On Thursday, he returned to 43.5 and remained there until match day.
vote: over 43.5. Don’t bend over here. I believe Kyler Murray can move the ball well against this top-rated Patriots defense thanks to his legs, and Mac Jones has been playing better lately. Jones completed 70% of his passes in his last four starts and scored four goals with zero interception, giving him 101.5 setter points. Given the Murray matchup (with the receivers getting healthy) and how Jones has been playing lately, it’s conceivable that these teams could drop into their under-20s.
key trend: The Over is 6-0 in the Cardinals’ last six games.
Mac Jones accessories
- Passing goals: 1.5 (above +133, below -184)
- Last yard: 224.5 (Over -142, Below +104)
- interventions: 0.5 (Above -103, Below -133)
It’s not ideal if Mac Jones isn’t without Jakobi Meyers (concussion) for this game, as expansion is a reliable option for him in critical situations. Still, he should find success from the air this season against a Cardinals defense that allows 289.2 passing yards per game at home and is the third-worst-placed Cardinals in the NFL. This shows a positive trend for Jones to Overkill the passing pitch prop, and at +133 the passing prop seems to have solid value, especially if the running back Damien Harris (suspect, thigh) isn’t playing. Arizona allows the league’s highest 2.3 passing goals per game at home.
Accessories from Kyler Murray
- Passing goals: 1.5 (Above +116, Below -160)
- Last yard: Over 238.5 (above -108), below -127)
- running fields: 35.5 (Above -111, Under -123)
- Pass attempts: 33.5 (Over -101, Below -135)
- Longest pass completion: 35.5 (Over -121, Below -113)
- Completions: 22.5 (Above -111, Under -123)
- interventions: 0.5 (Over -142, Below +104)
Murray’s rush prop at 35.5 is my favorite on the board. He’s been over that number in five of his last six games, three of them head-to-head. As we mentioned above, the Patriots struggled against mobile quarterbacks, seeing Lamar Jackson sprint for 107 yards in Week 3, followed by Justin Fields notching the 82-yard ground in Week 7. Murray is definitely capable of dealing similar damage.
Player characteristics to consider
Rhamondre Stevenson total reception area: over 33.5 (-135). Stevenson shares the lead with 67 points this season. The man he got close to, Jakobi Meyers, was eliminated for this match, so he should see plenty of volume in Monday night’s passing game. Stevenson has exceeded that field goal in four of his last six games.
Hunter Henry all-time touchdown (+285). Let’s take a shot in the dark. With Meyers away, there are still goals to hit, and Henry has seen five looks from Jones in each of the last two games, including a 37-yard field goal on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals have been weak to hard ends this season, so this could be an opportunity for Henry to find the finish zone once again.
