by We review Patrick Mahomes’ short but worthwhile track record as a weak player ahead of Super Bowl LVII against the Eagles.
After some early back and forth when the Super Bowl LVII spread drops, the Eagles are favored over the Chiefs in the Big Game.
With Philadelphia giving Kansas City just 1.5 points, there’s a narrow margin. It’s also a historic game, as it’s the first time Patrick Mahomes’s playoff career has been understaffed.
For the first five years, Mahomes was up 10–3 post-season and 1–1 in the Super Bowls. The Chiefs were favored in all 13 playoff games where he was centre. Ahead of AFC’s championship game against the Bengals was a point at which it looked like the streak was coming to an end and Cincinnati would close as away favourites. There were concerns about the condition of Mahomes, who was dealing with a high ankle sprain, but the spread returned to Kansas City after a full midweek workout.
Mahomes was rarely established as a weak player during the regular season. It’s only happened nine times in his 80 career start.
Before the Super Bowl, let’s review Mahomes’ short and lucrative scoring history.
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
2017
Register ATS: 1–0
save SU: 1–0
With the Chiefs locked into playoff position, coach Andy Reid sat down Alex Smith for the season finale, replacing him with the 10th overall pick Mahomes earlier that year. A road game against Denver was Mahomes’ debut, and Kansas City was established as a weak three-pointer.
Mahomes completed 22 of 35 passes and an interception for 284 yards, helping his team score two goals in the fourth round. After the draw, the Broncos rallied to level the game, and Reid sent the future franchise quarterback back into the game with less than three minutes left. Mahomes responded with his first career-winning drive, which was closed by a 30-yard field goal from Harrison Butker as time ran out to give the Chiefs a 27-24 lead.
2018
Register ATS: 3–0–1
save SU: 3–2
In three of nine games, it makes sense that Mahomes was weak in the first three starts of his career. No one knew yet that the signal seeker from Texas Tech was such a magician.
After Smith was traded, the Chiefs were officially Mahomes’ team and were established as weak 3.5-pointers away against the Chargers at the season opener. Mahomes threw for 256 yards and four goals in a 38-28 win over Philip Rivers. He tied with Tyreek Hill seven times for 169 yards and two points in that game, the beginning of a successful partnership.
The following week in Pittsburgh was the same, though even better. Mahomes scored six goals in Ben Roethlisberger’s 42-37 win over the Steelers in a game that Kansas City came in as Mahomes’ biggest weak point of his career, a weak 4.5 point.
The Chiefs were undefeated on their way to Gillette Stadium in Week 6 to beat the 3.5-point favorites Tom Brady and the Patriots. New England won 43-40 with a game-winning field goal from Stephen Gostkowski. Mahomes finished with 352 yards to Brady’s 340 yards, four more goals and two picks and a point. It was Mahomes’ first loss in his young career, but he still closed the spread.
In Week 11, the Chiefs traveled to Los Angeles to beat the Rams in what became game of the year. LA was the three-point favorite in a game that smashed their astronomical 63.5-point over/under score. Mahomes threw for 478 yards, which remains a career-high, and six more goals with three interceptions in a 54-51 loss to Jared Goff, who scored 413 yards and a five-point total. It was a push for KC.
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
2019
Register ATS: 1–0
save SU: 1–0
After losing twice to New England last year, including at home on the division tour, Kansas City returned to Foxborough, Mass as a weak three-pointer in Week 14. Mahomes eventually took the best of Brady with a 23-16 win. He finished with 283 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
2020
Register ATS: 1–0
save SU: 1–0
The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs traveled to Baltimore to defeat reigning MVP Lamar Jackson in Week 3. In this showdown between the two best teams of AFC, the Ravens were preferred with 3.5 points. Kansas City clamped down on Jackson in a 34-20 win, while Mahomes slammed for more than 400 yards and scored five goals.
2021
Register ATS: No
save SU: No
(Favorite in every game.)
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2022
Register ATS: 1–1
save SU: 1–1
In retrospect, it’s surprising that the Buccaneers were favored by 2.5 in their Week 4 Super Bowl LV rematch against the Chiefs at home. At the time, however, Tampa Bay was 3-0 and Kansas City suffered a shocking loss to Indianapolis. Mahomes defeated Brady 41-31 in the sixth (and now seemingly final) all-time match between the two signal seekers.
In the Week 6 rematch of the previous year’s exciting divisional round war, Bills was favored by 2.5 away at Arrowhead Stadium. This was the first and only time in Mahomes’ career that he was weak at home, and Buffalo got his revenge. Josh Allen scored a goal with just over a minute left, followed by an interception by Mahomes that sealed the game in a 24-20 loss. This was his only loss to spread as a weak player in his career.
And now, Philadelphia is a narrow favorite against Kansas City in the Super Bowl on a neutral field in Glendale, Arizona. Mahomes and Jalen Hurts had a one-on-one match in their respective careers: the Chiefs won 42-30 away to the Eagles. They were favorites with 6.5 points.
In the two previous Super Bowls Mahomes played, he was a 1.5-point favorite against the 49ers and a three-point favorite against the Buccaneers. 1-1 in his career against the spread in the Big Game.
Career as an underdog
Register ATS: 7–1–1
save SU: 6–3
