by For nearly a decade, the NFC South has been an insidious crushing force. Dating back to the 2015 season, three different clubs (Panthers, Falcons and Buccaneers) reached the Super Bowl and the other (Saints) made it to the NFC Championship in the process. During the same period, NFC South saw division winners hit records in double digits. In fact, the NFC South winner has averaged 12.5 wins per season since 2015.
This will likely change in 2022. With just four weeks left of the regular season, every team in the NFC South is under .500. While neither of these clubs are overly competitive this season, they are two games away on the losing column, meaning there is hope for each team to make a late move and win. I mean, someone has to win this episode, right?
Below, we’ll detail the remaining path for each member of the NFC South, highlight the current tiebreakers coming out of Week 14, and finally make our estimation of how we see this shakeup.
All NFL odds on Caesars Sportsbook.
NFC South standings enter week 15
|
1. Pirates |
6-7 |
3-1 |
-300 |
|
2. Panthers |
5-8 |
3-1 |
+375 |
|
3. Falcons |
5-8 |
1-3 |
+1400 |
|
4. Saints |
4-9 |
1-3 |
+4000 |
As you can see, Tampa Bay has a poor lead in this division race and is currently the bookies favorite to finish the year as the NFC South champion. It’s worth noting that the Bucs currently have a head-to-head tiebreak against the New Orleans Saints thanks to the season sweep, defeating the Falcons, who they’ll face again in the regular season finale. Tampa Bay also has one more game left with the Panthers, who beat them in Week 7.
Carolina will break the head-to-head tie if they get another win against the Bucs when they go to Raymond James Stadium in Week 17. If they don’t, it will be the better record for the NFC South crown in the next tiebreaker division. This can come into play here, especially considering the Bucs have games left against the Panthers and Falcons and Carolina and Atlanta have already split their season streak.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s playoff estimates, Tampa Bay currently has a 65% chance of winning the episode coming out of Week 14. Carolina has 31% chance, Atlanta 4% and New Orleans 0.7% chance to win.
The remaining program of the pirates
|
Week 15 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) |
|
16. Week |
Arizona Cardinals |
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ) |
|
Week 17 |
Carolina Panthers |
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) |
|
18. Week |
Atlanta Falcons |
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA) |
The Buccaneers have the seventh easiest schedule remaining in the NFL based on their opponents’ overall winning percentage. But as they host the Cincinnati Bengals, who have five wins in a row and are looking to move up the AFC playoff standings, they’re looking at their toughest game remaining on the schedule this week. The Bengals are in the top 10 in the DVOA this season and boast a top-five offense in the NFL that Tampa Bay can be tough to catch. If the Bucs quit this game, their chance of winning the division drops to 57%, not even taking into account other matches in the division.
In Week 16, they may have taken a hiatus as Kyler Murray suffered something feared tearing his ACL when they lost to the Patriots on Monday, so they would likely face Colt McCoy in that match. Then, as they face back-to-back league rivals in the Tampa Bay Panthers and Falcons, the final phase of the season could decide the fate of the season. If Carolina wins, they’ll claim a head-to-head tiebreak, and if Atlanta beats them in Week 18, they’ll be down to .500 against their divisional rivals.
However, if Tampa Bay goes back 3-1 meanwhile they will be in a prime position to win the NFC South. Even if they go 2-2, but with these two wins against the Panthers and Falcons, they clinch the standings.
The remaining schedule of the panthers
| Week | Rival | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Week 15 | Pittsburgh Steelworkers | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| 16. Week | Detroit Lions | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| Week 17 | Tampa Bay Pirates | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) |
| 18. Week | New Orleans Saints | Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA) |
Carolina actually has the easiest program remaining in the NFC South and the fifth easiest program in the entire NFL. In Week 15, they could face a Steelers team without Kenny Pickett (concussion) and starting Mason Rudolph or Mitchell Trubisky. With this QB uncertainty looming, the Panthers are a 2.5-point favorite against Pittsburgh.
If they win that game and Tampa Bay lose their Week 15 match to the Bengals, their Bucs odds will drop to 50%, giving them a 45% chance of winning the NFC South. Perhaps the hardest match left for Carolina is the Lions in Week 16. Detroit became one of the hottest teams in the NFL as they tried to crash the playoff party with a wildcard berth.
While this matchup could certainly end in a loss, as long as the Panthers stay in the Bucs game leading up to their Week 17 showdown, they’ll have the opportunity to take them one step ahead thanks to their win earlier this season. However, if Tampa Bay goes 2-1 in their remaining games, a win against the Bucs won’t automatically solidify them in the league. The Panthers would then enter a must-win game against the Saints in Week 18 that would secure their first league title since 2015.
Falcons’ remaining schedule
| Week | Rival | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Week 15 | Pittsburgh Steelworkers | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| 16. Week | Detroit Lions | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| Week 17 | Tampa Bay Pirates | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) |
| 18. Week | New Orleans Saints | Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA) |
Atlanta has a chance to return to this playoff picture and they will try to make that move. as they turn rookie point guard Desmond Ridder has a good bye from Week 14. That said, they’ll need a win against the Saints this week if they want to stay in contention and maintain their record of 1-3 against NFC Southern rivals. If they drop that game, which are currently weak 4-pointers, a scenario where they’ll still make the playoffs is for the Bucs to lose their remaining four games and the Panthers to lose their next two games but beat them. remaining division rivals. That puts Atlanta to an 8-9 record, which puts them in a game against the Panthers.
The remaining program of the saints
| Week | Rival | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Week 15 | Pittsburgh Steelworkers | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| 16. Week | Detroit Lions | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) |
| Week 17 | Tampa Bay Pirates | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) |
| 18. Week | New Orleans Saints | Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA) |
New Orleans need a lot of help at this point to get to the postseason. Even if they win and we don’t touch anything else in the episode, they only have a 19% chance of winning NFC South.
Besides winning, one scenario where they reach the playoffs is Tampa Bay trailing 1-3 in a loss to the Bengals, Panthers and Falcons. Next, the Panthers would have to lose 2-2 to the Steelers and Saints and take a win against the Lions and Bucs. Under these circumstances, New Orleans would have advanced to the playoffs, even if the Falcons had won 3-1 last month but a loss by the Saints this week.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Prediction
As boring as it may sound, we have the Buccaneers who win this episode almost by default. Even if they climbed to .500 in the last month, as long as they can beat the Panthers at home in Week 17, that should be enough for them to realistically clinch the NFC South for the second time in a row. However, getting the Panthers at +375 is a good value at this point in the season as things can easily turn in their favor. However, whoever comes out of this episode will most likely be a sacrificial lamb for the hot playoff team (presumably the Dallas Cowboys) entering their buildings.
