by The top two teams in the most recent men’s AP poll entered the season unranked, and these two shows (Purdue and UConn) have been discussed at length in recent weeks. But for these teams to rise, one had to fall, and the few teams set for preseason elite seasons haven’t yet been able to put them all together. Here’s a look at the five most disappointing teams in the country, what went wrong, and what the outlook is for turning things around.
1. North Carolina
I’m buying the resurrection of North Carolina.
The Tar Heels may not be as positive as I think they’ll have in the preseason, as their depth hasn’t come out as hoped, and it’s unrealistic to sustain the defensive intensity of the team’s March run all season. Still, based on how they played against Ohio State and Michigan, I’d bet this team would be in the top 10-15 nationally. A slow start to the season, Armando Bacot scored 28 points against Ohio State and 26 points against Michigan. With Bacot playing like an All-American again and Caleb Love and RJ Davis improving his shooting selection, it’s starting to look like the Carolina team that made waves last March.
Plus, we know the NCAA tournament environment suits the Heels very well. Depth is a little less important because teams rely on starting players, guards who can play for themselves without jumping are incredibly important, and experience in big games is invaluable. Heels has all three. They may hit a few blows in the ACC game, but the last two wins have convinced me to stick with the UNC majority.
2. Kentucky
Kentucky has arguably the highest floor of any of these “overwhelming” teams. With Oscar Tshiebwe in the middle, a backcourt lottery pick and athletes everywhere, even a disappointing year will likely end with a team close to the top 25. this is standard in the blueblood show and there are some real concerns about the ceiling of this group.
That’s nowhere near Kentucky’s most talented roster under John Calipari; in fact, I would argue that he is among the least talented of their group. That came with a tradeoff: older, veteran signings like Sahvir Wheeler, Antonio Reeves, CJ Fredrick, and Jacob Toppin instead of NBA-bound one-on-ones that need more spice. But Kentucky has still had its fair share of “freshman mistakes”, plus there’s apparently little squad fit and can’t outrun top-level competition. The Wildcats’ charge doesn’t feel threatening, given the fairly limited weapons and lack of guards who can form their own shots from the three around Tshiebwe. Quarterback Wheeler has his limitations, but there is some trade-off when he’s not in the game without another real quarterback in the rotation.
The Wildcats are still on the edge of SEC contention, and I’d be surprised if they’re often out of the top 25, but this team lacks the national championship ceiling I thought it had in the preseason.
3. Creighton
Much of Creighton’s recent loss of skate can be attributed to bad luck. The Bluejays set a brutal schedule for late November and early December, with trips and a few high-level matches that even an NBA team would want to avoid. They also endured the loss of star long Ryan Kalkbrenner, who is a key piece on both sides, due to a three-game illness and some deep-seated shooting struggles. Creighton isn’t as bad as his track record suggests, but even with a healthy Kalkbrenner he wasn’t quite living up to expectations.
With Kalkbrenner back in the middle for the Bluejays, this team is going as Ryan Nembhard took it. At the Maui Invitational, Nembhard was terrific, averaging 20 points and four assists, and he did so efficiently as the Jays beat Texas Tech and Arkansas before pushing Arizona. In the next five games, he averaged just over eight points per competition and only 32% of the field shot. Beating UConn will be tough, but if Nembhard plays well, Creighton could be as good as anyone in the Big East.
4. India
Indiana had two impressive wins at Xavier before beating North Carolina in November, but staggered to three losses in December. Individually, defeats at Rutgers and Kansas and at a neutral court against Arizona are no cause for alarm, but IU’s lack of competitiveness in these three games has raised alarms about the Hoosiers’ ability to compete with the top teams when conference play arrives. opened.
Still, I would consider Indiana one of the best teams in the Big Ten if it weren’t for the injury of quarterback Xavier Johnson, who was expected to miss significant time after foot surgery. The door is open for him to return later this season, but the fact that Johnson is out for much of the Big Ten game will further limit the ceiling for this group. Indiana is at its best when Johnson attacks in the ball curtains and puts pressure on the defense, opening opportunities for Trayce Jackson-Davis for lobs and easy finishes. Freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino isn’t a full-time quarterback, and bench guards like Tamar Bates and Trey Galloway don’t have the same explosiveness at jumping. According to Hoop-Explorer, in games against the top 100 opponents, Indiana is worse off by 30 points per 100 positions due to Johnson’s absence this season.
It’s still an NCAA tournament team, but it’s hard to imagine the Hoosiers climbing much higher in the middle group in the Big Ten unless Johnson’s comeback timeline is faster than expected.
5. Villanova
Villanova started 2-5, but has since won their last five games. Some of that spin is about the program, but Oklahoma and St. John’s wins should age relatively well for Kyle Neptune’s team.
The first three weeks of the season were a comedy of errors for the Wildcats. Injuries were a factor, star freshman Cam Whitmore left the field until early December due to an off-season hand injury, and top player Justin Moore is still absent after last season’s Achilles injury. Still, the move from Jay Wright to Neptune appeared tougher than feared, and Villanova is struggling to produce easy shots on offense, thanks to quarterback troubles and unusual perimeter shooting issues.
The offense has clearly started to progress, but the ‘Cats remain heavily dependent on three-pointers. One of the problems Whitmore couldn’t solve was Villanova’s problems in the paint field; here the Wildcats continue to struggle, especially against major opponents. Yet this group at least now has the appearance of a bubble suit, after a real worry last month. The ceiling feels limited unless Moore comes back in full force to give this offense a shock, especially given Villanova’s résumé with nasty losses to Temple and Portland in November.
